Are we ready for a world where Ukraine loses its war against Russia?
If Ukraine loses its war against Vladimir Putin and a resurgent militarised Russia sweeps on into Moldova and the Baltics, historians will look back and see this week as pivotal in the demise of the free world.
If that sounds alarmist, perhaps you have not been paying enough attention.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed. Russia is being bolstered by a host of dictators.
Ukraine war latest: ‘Problem-solver-in-chief’ Putin to hold televised phone-in with public
North Korea is arming him, the autocrats of the Gulf and China are helping him work a way round western sanctions.
And in America the presidential frontrunner is a man poised to abandon both Kyiv and NATO.
None of that is hyperbole. It is unquestionable fact.
This was the week Putin was filmed sipping champagne, telling sycophants “Ukraine has no future”.
And the same week that saw President Zelenskyy on a begging mission pleading with allies in America and Europe for billions more in military support and aid.
Pleading because there is no certainty whatsoever he will get it.
European leaders appear to be in denial. Russia has dug in and can hold on for a year, playing for time until the leadership of the free world might pass to a man uninterested in defending it, in Europe at least.
This is unquestionably the moment to offer moral support.
But European leaders could this week retreat from advancing Ukraine’s membership of the EU, going back on commitments made earlier in the conflict.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban, sympathetic to Putin, is blocking that and a multi-billion-pound aid package.
Will fellow leaders find the cojones to stand up to him and force the issue in Ukraine’s favour? The answer is far from certain.
If they don’t the message to Ukraine will be devastating.
Ukrainians face another winter shivering in homes deprived of heat and power as Russia’s drones, supplied by more autocrats in Iran, pummel their civilian infrastructure.
This winter it is not just the cold that will gnaw at them. Doubt will too. Doubt that the west will keep its promises. Promises about supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.
That doubt will sap their morale as much as the knowledge that Russia continues to hold 20 percent of their land two years after its unprovoked invasion.
And in Moscow, Europe’s prevarication and vacillation will be yet more encouragement, like the dither and delay that allowed Russia to dig in impregnably while the west bickered over sending tanks earlier in the year.
Europe’s leaders should be under no illusion. The message they send this week could be crucial in deterring the biggest threat yet to the world order since World War Two.
If they miss that opportunity, distracted by petty infighting and internal divisions, we all may pay the price for years to come.