How Joe Biden’s exit from presidential race could impact Netanyahu’s Washington visit
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the US was first proposed by politicians in Washington, there were plenty who thought it was a terrible idea.
Netanyahu’s stewardship of the war in Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of more than 39,000, has fuelled mass criticism – and mass protests worldwide.
Key figures in the capital, like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have called him an “obstacle to peace”. President Joe Biden is widely thought to have grown exasperated with the 74-year-old.
However, the top four leaders in the US congress – including Schumer – eventually sanctioned his address to a joint session of the legislature – an honour that Netanyahu will receive for the fourth time.
It serves to underline the power and attraction of Israel in the US capital.
That said, there are people who are not going to turn up, like Senators Jeff Merkley and Bernie Sanders who previously labelled Netanyahu a “war criminal”.
What’s more, he finds himself in a country that has got other things to think about, like Mr Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential election and the reorientation of the contest to replace him.
It is probably not what the Israeli leader was expecting.
Embroiled in a battle for political survival at home, Netanyahu seeks a showcase trip that will rehabilitate his image.
He also wants the US to resume supplies of large ammunition – like 2,000lb bombs – that have been withheld over concerns about civilian casualties in Gaza.
Then, there is the need for support in the face of mounting international pressure.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has threatened Netanyahu with an arrest warrant on war crimes charges along with his defence minister and three members of Hamas.
Furthermore, Israel is fighting the accusation of genocide in a case brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Israel strongly denies the accusations.
The main thing Biden wants from Netanyahu is his signature on a ceasefire deal and he is sure to present his demands when the two men meet.
Detailed talks on a phased agreement have been taking place in Cairo and Qatar and US officials seem to think an agreement is within reach. Yet the overriding question here is whether Netanyahu will commit.
The Israeli leader – who has pledged to bring about the “total destruction of Hamas” – does not want a permanent halt to the fighting. Critically, a long-running conflict works to keep him in power. Right-wing members of his administration are opposed to any sort of peace deal.
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Yet the US president and much of the world have grown weary of Netanyahu’s approach to negotiation. Released from the strictures of electoral politics, Biden may decide to lay it on thick.
It will not be the red-carpet occasion that many assumed.