The COP28 draft agreement in Dubai feels different – speculation abounds as to why
Every climate summit enters its final phase with general disappointment about the level of ambition.
But in Dubai it feels like something different.
Draft agreements are negotiating tools. Designed texts guide countries with very different wishes and needs toward consensus.
Take those entirely dependent on fossil fuels, like Saudi Arabia. Or India, heavily dependent on coal but reluctant to be pushed not to use it by countries who already got rich by burning theirs.
To the poorer, most climate-vulnerable countries in Africa or the Pacific with everything to lose.
Forging consensus among them typically starts with the most ambitious agreement you think you’ll ever achieve – and working down from there.
But to many observers, the draft agreement here is the opposite.
It doesn’t include strong language or timelines to get rid of fossil fuels – the real driver of climate change – nor the financial mechanisms to help poor countries adapt to the climate change we’re already experiencing or making it worse as they grow their economies.
Fossil fuel phase out and finance. The two things an agreement has to have – neither of which is solidly in the opening bid.
Speculation abounds as to why.
Is this a crafty move by the United Arab Emirates which presides over this COP?
A strategy to persuade fellow oil-rich Arab kingdoms like Saudi Arabia to budge and stop their annual obstruction at these talks?
Spreaker This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options. Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies. To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only. Enable Cookies Allow Cookies Once
Click to subscribe to ClimateCast with Tom Heap wherever you get your podcasts
Or – as many climate hawks warned from the start – is this a sign of the inevitable outcome of a summit hosted by a major oil and gas exporter and presided over by the CEO of its national oil company?
There will be some serious push back. Negotiations will likely overrun – perhaps even end in disagreement.
Whatever happens, the deal currently on the table doesn’t come close to keeping 1.5C of warming “in reach” – it puts it firmly beyond anyone’s grasp.