Ukraine-Russia war latest: NATO ‘closer to war with Russia than most realise’ – as thinktank warns Putin preparing for ‘large-scale offensive’

By admin On Jan 17, 2024

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14:53:28 Afternoon round-up – the latest from the Ukraine war

While we haven’t been able to continue our rolling coverage of the Ukraine war today, we can bring you the latest updates from the conflict.

Residents of the Russian-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine lined up to register their support for Vladimir Putin in a presidential vote he is sure to win.

The Russian president is also set to welcome North Korea’s foreign minster Choe Son-hui later this evening.

On the other side, President Zelenskyy has spent his day calling for more support from the West – stressing the need for unity behind Kyiv while in Davos at the World Economic Forum.

Here are the other key updates you need to know about:

President Zelenskyy spoke with US secretary of state Antony Blinken about the need for a further weapons package;Residents of more than two dozen villages in the Kharkiv region have been urged to evacuate because of worsening Russian attacks, the governor announced;Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, admitted that there were times he wanted to punch Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov “in the face” during peace talks in the early days of the war;Estonian security services detained a Russian citizen accused of spying for Moscow.

17:30:01 That’s all for today

Scroll back through our blog for all the day’s events as they happened.

16:45:01 My troops can still surprise – Ukraine ground commander

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of Ukraine’s ground forces, says his forces in the east of the country are still a threat to enemies despite their focus being on defence.

There was initial optimism for a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer, but Russian defences largely held, limiting early advances to a few kilometres in some spots before Moscow’s forces hit back elsewhere.

Mr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s number two commander and a key figure in Kyiv’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion, told Reuters his troops should still not be counted out as an offensive force despite their focus shifting to defending the country from Russian aggression.

“Our goals remain unchanged: holding our positions… exhausting the enemy by inflicting maximum losses,” he said.

Speaking from an undisclosed location in the eastern region of Kharkiv, he noted how Russian troops were pressing in multiple directions along the eastern front, with the aim of wresting full control of the industrial Donbas region despite heavy losses in men and supplies.

Russia also hopes to claw back ground it lost in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Mr Syrskyi added.

He said Ukrainian troops, for their part, are still staging smaller counter-attacks as part of what he called “active defence”, in an attempt to keep the enemy on its toes.

15:46:48 NATO ‘closer to war with Russia than most people realise’, academic says

A direct conflict with Russia is nearer than many think, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project has warned.

“We are much closer to war with Russia than most people realise,” Fabian Hoffmann said on X.

He said that in his opinion the West has two or three years “at best” to re-establish deterrence.

He added: “Rather than comprehensively defeating NATO in a prolonged ground war, similar to what we see in Ukraine, Russian doctrine suggests that Russia would attempt to coerce NATO into submission by signalling the ability to inflict progressively greater amounts of damage.”

This, Mr Hoffmann said, would include long-range strikes against critical civilian infrastructure across European NATO countries early on.

“The message to NATO governments: Don’t come to the support of your eastern European allies, unless you want to see your population suffer.”

14:32:50 Putin holds call with Indian PM

Vladimir Putin has held a phone call with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss Ukraine.

The Kremlin said in a statement today that the two leaders “expressed interest in further intensifying mutually beneficial bilateral ties” and touched upon “the situation in Ukraine”.

They also wished each other success in upcoming parliamentary elections in India and a presidential poll in Russia.

For context: India and Russia have been partners since the Cold War and historically India has depended on Russia for much of its defence arsenal.

The country has maintained its traditionally friendly ties with Russia since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, even as it has remained close to Western countries, including the US.

14:10:01 Watch: Ukrainians hold memorial for 46 people who died after Russian missile attack

Residents in Dnipro held a memorial service yesterday for the 46 people killed in a Russian missile strike a year ago.

The missile struck an apartment block in the Ukrainian city on 14 January 2023, completely destroying it.

Six children were among those who died and dozens of other people were injured.

Dnipro residents brought flowers, toys and candles to the ruins of the building yesterday to mark the anniversary of the attack.

13:45:01 UK defence secretary calls for allies to ‘act globally’ after UK’s £2.5bn aid package

Here’s a bit more on what the UK defence secretary Grant Shapps said about the Ukraine war during his wide-ranging speech at Lancaster House this morning.

Having confirmed that more than 20,000 UK troops would join NATO’s huge military drill to prepare for a Russian invasion, he underlined the UK government’s commitment to helping Ukraine.

He confirmed Britain had now trained 60,000 Ukrainian troops since the war began and appealed to allies to “act globally” in support of the country.

He added that Britain’s further £2.5bn support package for Ukraine in 2024-25, which prime minster Rishi Sunak announced on Friday, “continues the UK’s proud record as a leading donor – always being the first to get Ukraine exactly what they need.”

“But our new agreement with Ukraine is about so much more than money,” Mr Shapps added.

“Britain understands that the battle in Ukraine is existential, it proves there is no such thing as an isolated conflict.”

13:17:37 Putin preparing for ‘large-scale offensive’ in coming weeks – thinktank

Russian sources say President Putin’s forces are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

The thinktank says Russian literary critic and alternative historian Sergey Pereslegin expects Russian forces to launch a large-scale offensive effort in Ukraine at some stage between now and the start of February.

Mr Pereslegin said he thinks the push will come after Ukrainian forces grow “exhausted” of defending their positions in the cold in Avdiivka and eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.

He added that Russians should be more worried about their forces launching the offensive at the wrong time or making “mistakes” than they should about a renewed Ukrainian offensive.

He also said Russia may not have enough manpower to conduct as big of an offensive effort as he is anticipating.

13:04:40 Image shows damaged Russian aircraft ‘shot down by Ukraine’

Earlier we reported that two high-value Russian aircraft had been shot down over the Sea of Azov, according to Ukraine (see 11.47am post).

A photo purporting to show one of the aircraft has now appeared on Telegram.

The picture alleges to show the damaged IL-22 plane, which is used as an airborne command post.

11:47:29 UK to deploy 20,000 troops to NATO military drill to practice repelling a Russian invasion

The UK will send 20,000 troops to one of NATO’s biggest military drills since the Cold War as the alliance practises repelling an invasion by Russian forces, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced.

Army, navy and RAF personnel will be deployed to the 31-nation Steadfast Defender exercise in a bid to provide “vital reassurance against the menace” of Vladimir Putin, Mr Shapps said in a speech.

The defence secretary also warned the West stands at a “crossroads” as he unveiled the UK’s contribution to the war games in an address at Lancaster House.

Read the full story here…

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