Will there be more Atlantic hurricanes in 2024? Why Milton may not be the last
The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a slow start this year, but there have now been 13 named storms – and there could be even more to come.
Back in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned that this year’s season – running from 1 June to 30 November – had an 85% chance of being more active than usual.
An average year will see a total of 14 named storms, of which seven will be regular hurricanes and three will be major ones.
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After a slow start – the slowest in 10 years – things have picked up recently. Of the 13 named storms, nine became hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status (rated Category 3 and above on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Two have reached Category 5, the highest possible; Beryl – the most powerful storm to ever make landfall so early in the season, which formed at the end of June – and Milton, which hit Florida this week.
August was unusually quiet, likely due to thunderstorm activity over Africa being further north than usual, but things picked up through September and early October.
We are past the peak of the season but there are more than six weeks left – so there is still time for more hurricanes to form.
And people in Florida know all too well the chance of hurricanes arriving later in the year.
In 2005, Hurricane Wilma hit towards the end of October, causing 30 deaths and around $19bn (£14.5bn) worth of damage.
With sea surface temperatures still above average, there’s a real chance of more hurricanes this season.
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But that doesn’t mean any that do form will have an impact on land or Florida itself, in fact, tropical storm Leslie – which has been downgraded from a hurricane – is currently in the central Atlantic not affecting any land masses.
And although major hurricanes can occur in November, they are rare. All we can do is wait and see.