Islamic State has claimed Iran attack – a reminder that it hopes to capitalise on Middle East chaos
Islamic State has claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings in Iran that killed at least 84 people.
Iran originally blamed Israel and the United States for the attacks at the shrine of Revolutionary Guard general Qassem Soleimani, but this was never credible.
Israel has carried out operations on Iranian soil many times before, but they’ve targeted high-level individuals like nuclear scientists, or particular locations such as military bases.
The indiscriminate bombs that killed and wounded hundreds of mourners gathering close to a cemetery was always more likely to have been the act of a dissident group inside Iran and the admission of responsibility from Islamic State makes sense.
This was an opportunistic attack – emotions in Iran are always high around the anniversary of the killing of Qassem Soleimani, and even more so this year with the Israel-Hamas war raging – but also, I think, a strategic one.
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Islamic State, or Daesh as it is known in the Middle East, has been a significantly diminished force in the region for some years now.
But it hasn’t gone away and will be watching the Hamas war hoping to see an opportunity to move into any space it can.
My assessment is that it was a fortunate coincidence, for IS planners, that it also came less than 24 hours after the Israeli assassination of Saleh al Arouri in Beirut, Lebanon.
I think it’s unlikely that Islamic State in Iran has the capability to have planned and carried out an attack of this scale and sophistication at such short notice.
On the same day IS claimed responsibility for the attacks in Iran, it released an audio message calling for IS followers to rise up against the West.
Whilst it’s foolish to ignore these threats, IS doesn’t have the same following in Europe that it enjoyed a few years ago and so I would still assess a major terror attack as highly unlikely.
But the explosions in Iran are a reminder that IS still exists, and it wants to take advantage of the chaos that might emerge from the current instability.