Russia has questions to answer over response to Moscow terror attack
In the storm of speculation following Russia’s worst terrorist attack in decades, 24 hours on certain facts stand out and questions need answering.
The Russians were warned by the US government two weeks ago that an attack by extremists was imminent on “large gatherings to include concerts”.
Even with relations as strained as they are today, warnings about Islamist and other terrorist threats are still passed on.
More than 130 killed in concert attack; follow latest updates
Predictably President Vladimir Putin dismissed those warnings in public – you would expect that.
But behind the scenes you would also expect him to have ordered security to be tightened, to prepare for the worst. That does not appear to have happened. In fact quite the opposite.
Security at the event appears to have been lax. And the Rosgvardiya national guard base two miles away took an hour-and-a-half to mobilise to the attack once it had happened.
The same national guard is capable of appearing within minutes at the slightest sign of protest on the streets of Moscow deploying baton wielding goons to beat demonstrators. Something does not add up.
That has led to claims the Russian state was in some way involved in this attack. With most countries that would be an absurd hypothesis.
But it is important to point out that Russia has used false flag operations in the past, most notoriously a series of apartment bombings that killed 300 Russians at the start of Mr Putin’s time in office.
The attacks are widely regarded to have been the work of the Russian security services.
The bombings help spark the Second Chechen war that in turn helped Mr Putin cement his grip on power and ascend to the presidency.
Did the government let the attack happen?
In this case most informed observers are leaning towards believing Islamic State’s claim of responsibility rather than believing the Russian state engineered the attack.
But given the security failures, did the Russian government somehow let the attack happen deliberately?
Was it hoping that would keep the public terrified and compliant and allow the Kremlin to scapegoat the enemy?
Or was that failure more the product of incompetence and inertia in the Russian state. As ever, as we try and sift events in Russia cock-up jostles with conspiracy.
In some ways it’s academic. More important is the way Vladimir Putin intends to use this atrocity.
He is a master at manipulating events to suit his purposes. The Kremlin narrative is already clear. Ukraine is to blame.
It goes without saying Ukraine does not despatch gunmen to shoot innocent civilians.
No observer outside the Russian information space echo chamber is taking that claim seriously. But the Kremlin’s fiction is not for foreign consumption.
Moscow appears to be tilting towards further escalation in Ukraine.
Officials have begun using the word ‘war’ instead of ‘special military operation’.
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The economy is being militarised. There will at some point be a need for more young Russian men to be sent to the front. Another mobilisation may become a necessity.
As the Kremlin softens up Russians for that possibility, it is arming itself with another false reason to continue this devastating war.