The constituencies and voters Starmer needs to win over to become PM
From Mondeo Man to Worcester Woman – at every general election politicians, pollsters and pundits seek to identify the “key target voter” who will deliver victory.
Of course, the reality is more complex.
Clearly, Tony Blair wasn’t elected in 1997 solely thanks to men who drove Ford Mondeos. Not every woman in Worcester voted for Thatcher, then Blair and Cameron. And sometimes there’s a national wave as the country swings from one party to another.
So, is there a key target voter in 2024 that can save Rishi Sunak from defeat or deliver Sir Keir Starmer a majority?
To answer those questions, we need to consider the characteristics of people who live in the key Conservative/Labour battleground seats. To do this, we use calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Associate Members of Nuffield College, estimating the 2019 election result if it had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.
We combine these estimated constituency results with information about their adult population.
If voters switched uniformly from Conservative to Labour in 2024, with others unchanged, then a swing of 12.7 percentage points would see Labour gain the seats needed to win a majority, 117 of these gains coming directly from the Conservatives.
But there are three key groups of constituencies to consider. Those that cost the Tories their majority, those that see Labour become the largest party and the final set that deliver Labour outright victory.
So, what do we know about who lives in these key battlegrounds?
Crucially, their characteristics change as the seats get less marginal, becoming less working class and deprived and more likely to have a mortgage and be located in the south of England.
A swing of 4.2 would lose Mr Sunak 47 seats and his majority, with Labour gaining 40 of those constituencies.
Three-quarters of these seats are located in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales, and they are more likely to be deprived areas. This is especially true for the most marginal seats in the West Midlands, where the proportion of households living in deprivation is twenty points higher than average.
Voters in these 40 constituencies are more working class and less likely to have a degree than the general population. Support for Leave in the Brexit referendum was also higher.
As a group, they have a similar ethnic minority population to the 16.1% average for England and Wales. However, this varies widely. The most marginal seats in the West Midlands and London have a far higher proportion, while several seats are well below the average. For example, Whitehaven & Workington in the North West has among the lowest ethnic minority population of all the Labour target seats, with just 1.6%.
The overall age profile of these seats is very close to the national average too.
What about those seats that could make Labour the largest party in parliament?
To reach that benchmark Labour needs a swing of 8.3 points which could deliver a further 39 gains.
Again, voters in these areas are less likely to have a degree and showed higher support for Leave than average. But there are differences too. They are less likely to be working class or live in a deprived area than people in the previous set of constituencies, although still more likely than the general population. They are also far less likely to be from an ethnic minority background.
The geography of the seats changes too, which could be one reason for the slight demographic differences. Eight, or one in five, of these constituencies is in Yorkshire & The Humber, with the North West, East Midlands and the South East contributing a further 15 to the total – five each.
The scale of Labour’s majority challenge
For Labour to win a majority on the 12.7 point swing required from the Conservatives then they’d need to appeal to voters in the south of England as well as elsewhere. Less deprived and less working class than other marginal seats, people here are also younger and far more likely to own their home with a mortgage.
It’s clear the scale of Labour’s challenge is such that to secure a majority they need to win the votes of people who voted Conservative in 2019 in different parts of the UK and with different demographic characteristics.
Although winning seats from the SNP in Scotland could reduce the number needed from the Conservatives.
The Conservative/Lib Dem ‘second front’
Similarly, Mr Sunak is fighting on two fronts – and with two opponents. The Lib Dems are also challenging.
While the most marginal seats the Conservatives defend against Labour are in the Midlands, northern England, as well as Wales – the battleground with the Lib Dems is predominantly in the South East and South West of England.
The Lib Dems are second to the Tories in 85 seats. Forty of these are in the South East, a further 25 in the South West.
In contrast to the Conservative/Labour battleground, people in these seats are more likely to have a university degree and own their home either outright or with a mortgage. They are less likely to be working class or live in a deprived area and they are more likely to have backed Remain in the Brexit referendum.
How support for parties has changed since 2019
So which party do these voters prefer? How has their support changed since the last election? And what can that tell us about Mr Sunak’s and Mr Starmer’s prospects of success?
The regular and large sized survey from the British Election Study (BES) allows us to look at how the Conservative lead over Labour has changed with each demographic group since December 2019.
Its latest data, collected in May 2023 suggests people across the country, regardless of demographic group, are deserting the Tories.
The greatest losses have been among the bedrock of the electoral coalition assembled by Boris Johnson.
When he won his majority, the Conservative Party’s largest leads were with people who voted Leave, were aged over 65, in working class jobs or owned their homes outright – many of the key demographics in the current marginal seats.
Labour’s only advantage under Jeremy Corbyn was with university graduates and people from ethnic minority backgrounds, although support varies depending on ethnicity.
By May 2023, Conservative support had fallen in all categories, with the party’s lead over Labour dropping by close to 30 points among Leave supporters, people over 65, homeowners and working class voters. That’s a swing of 15 points.
Notably, the largest fall in support is among mortgage holders. They were clearly unhappy with the Conservative Party as average mortgage rates were rising.
At the same time, Labour has made modest gains with groups where its support was already strong – ethnic minority voters and university graduates.
So, what might be driving this sweeping shift?
The answer might be found in the issues they say matter most and how they think the government is handling them.
In 2019, Brexit dominated the minds of politicians and voters alike. Since then, the political landscape has changed dramatically. By May 2023, the BES survey showed the economy was considered the “most important issue” facing the country by over half voters in every demographic group, especially mortgage holders.
While polling considerably lower by comparison, immigration was the second ranked issue for every group, except university graduates (for whom it is the joint third ranked issue). Around one in seven people said it was their top concern.
Health consistently ranks as the third most important issue among Leave voters, older people, homeowners, working class and low-income voters. Interestingly, mortgage holders were more concerned about the environment than health, though the differences are small compared to the focus on the economy.
This common overriding concern about the economy makes it harder for the Tories to have success targeting other issues.
But it matters most if they think the government isn’t handling those concerns well.
The British Election Study data is clear that they don’t.
Overall, more than two thirds of people asked thought the government was handling the economy and the cost of living badly or very badly. Despite the Conservative Party’s focus on immigration, 70% thought they were handling that badly too.
But the biggest vote of no confidence was on the NHS, often an area of Labour strength, with three quarters of people saying the government was handling that badly or very badly.
But has Labour picked up support on these issues?
The latest monthly YouGov polling tracker is pretty conclusive. It suggests more people think Labour are the party best able to handle almost every key policy topic, except defence and security.
Although most people don’t think either party has the answer.
Will the Conservatives be swept aside in 2024?
At the last general election the Conservatives secured victory by focusing on Brexit and exploiting voter fears of Mr Corbyn.
Since then they’ve lost support most among the core of the coalition they constructed in 2019. The overriding concern for these Leave supporters, older people, those with working class jobs and who own their own homes is the same as all voters – the economy.
And like most people, they think the Tories are handling it badly.
Polling day could still be months away, and much can change in a short time, but the Conservatives risk being swept aside by an electoral tsunami, deserted by former supporters generally and weakened by having to fight on two fronts against Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
See what the demographic make-up of your constituency is and how it’s changed with our postcode lookup:
Methodology
Estimates for nominal 2019 election results for the new boundaries have been compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on behalf of Sky News, BBC News, ITV News and the Press Association.
A full methodology of the notional results estimates can be accessed here. The underlying data on all of the new vote estimates for each constituency can be downloaded as a spreadsheet.
For the purposes of this analysis Labour’s key target seats have been defined as the new boundary Conservative defences which are notionally won by Labour in England and Wales on up to a 12.7 uniform national vote swing from Conservatives to Labour, of which there are 117.
Liberal Democrat key target seats have been defined as the new boundary Conservative defences in which they would notionally have placed second in the 2019 election, of which there are 85.
Voting intention and voter attitudes data is from the British Election Study December 2019 and May 2023. Data on party issue handling is from YouGov.
Demographics data for England and Wales is from the Office for National Statistics Census 2021; looking at residents who were adults at the time of the Census only. Indicators on housing tenure are based on households not residents.
Census data on National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (NS-SeC) has been used to map residents’ occupations to ABC1/C2DE measures of social grade. NS-SeC levels 8-14 have been classed as C2DE/working class occupations. Full time students have been excluded from workings.
Area deprivation estimates are based on House of Commons Library research using the English Indices of Deprivation 2019, with highly deprived areas classed as those which are among the 10% most deprived in England. The percentage of highly deprived areas in a constituency is the share of Lower Super Output Areas within it which are in the highly deprived group.
And 2016 EU referendum results for both old and new constituency boundaries are from estimates by Professor Chris Hanretty.