Trident missile malfunction sends wrong kind of message and is more than just an embarrassing blow for UK’s nuclear deterrent
The UK’s nuclear deterrent submarines have one core mission – to maintain a continuous ability to launch a strike at any moment upon the order of the prime minister, without failure.
Any suggestion of vulnerability with one of the boats, the Trident missiles or their nuclear warheads undermines the protective blanket that this multiple-times-of-multiple-billions-of-pounds insurance policy is meant to provide to the UK and its NATO allies.
It is why confirmation of an “anomaly” in the test-firing of a US-made Trident II missile by a Vanguard-class submarine off the coast of Florida is more than just an embarrassing blow.
Coming after a previous missile launch in 2016 also failed, the revelation weakens the cast-iron sense of reliability that is required for the threat of a nuclear strike to have the desired deterrent effect.
The UK’s enemies need to be in no doubt that if they launched a nuclear weapon against Britain or another NATO state, the Royal Navy would be able to fire one back at them.
The Ministry of Defence was quick to stress HMS Vanguard, the ageing submarine that conducted the botched drill following a costly period of maintenance, had passed all its tests despite the glitch and was fit to return to nuclear-armed patrols.
A spokesperson also insisted the anomaly “was event specific, and therefore there are no implications for the reliability of the wider Trident missile systems and stockpile”.
They added: “The UK’s nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective.”
Test intended as show of strength sent wrong kind of message
The Royal Navy has a fleet of four Vanguard-class submarines, armed with Trident missiles that carry nuclear warheads.
They came into service in the 1990s and are due to be replaced by a new fleet of Dreadnought-class boats, though delays to that programme mean the older submarines are having to stay in service for longer – a move that comes with its own risks.
As well as maintaining a credible posture permanently at sea, the UK’s nuclear deterrent also relies on very careful messaging and choreography.
The same is true for any of the six other officially confirmed nuclear-armed powers, which include the US, France, China and Russia.
Any activity involving one of these nations’ nuclear weapons or a capability – such as the missile system – used to deploy the warheads sends a message to the other side.
The UK and its allies deliberately limit nuclear-related exercises and missile tests unless they want to signal to an opponent such as Russia that they are increasing their readiness – perhaps in response to a threat or an escalation in nuclear rhetoric.
It is also a costly process so the cash-strapped Ministry of Defence would only want to conduct tests when absolutely necessary – such as following the kind of £500m period of extended maintenance that HMS Vanguard has just completed.
Not wanting to cause a surprise, Britain had sign-posted well in advance that its boat would be conducting a Trident missile test off the Florida coast, with the system, carrying a dummy warhead, due to travel a few thousand miles before impacting harmlessly in the Atlantic somewhere between Brazil and West Africa.
Instead, the malfunction of the launch will have sent absolutely the wrong kind of message to friends and foes, regardless of the UK’s assurances of “absolute confidence” in its deterrent.
MoD: Trident still most reliable in the world
The Ministry of Defence said: “HMS Vanguard and her crew have been proven fully capable of operating the UK’s Continuous At-Sea Deterrent, passing all tests during a recent demonstration and shakedown operation (DASO) – a routine test to confirm that the submarine can return to service following deep maintenance work.
“The test has reaffirmed the effectiveness of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, in which we have absolute confidence.
“During the test an anomaly occurred. As a matter of national security, we cannot provide further information on this, however we are confident that the anomaly was event specific, and therefore there are no implications for the reliability of the wider Trident missile systems and stockpile. The UK’s nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective.”
It added that the Trident missile system remains the most reliable weapons system in the world, having successfully completed more than 190 tests.