UK claims to be climate leader – but is it ‘fuelling’ crisis?
When the UK hosted the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, few could doubt its ambitions on climate leadership. But two years later, as Rishi Sunak jets in to Dubai for COP28, confidence in that leadership is wavering.
Global voices here in Dubai have told Sky News the government’s recent change in rhetoric at home and issuing of new licences for oil and gas projects in the North Sea have not gone down well on the world stage.
Germany’s climate envoy and stalwart of the scene Jennifer Morgan said: “People are noticing that there have been changes [in the UK].
“And I hear from some of the most vulnerable countries a sense of worry,” she said in an interview.
“So hopefully the UK can come here and make clear they’re on course.”
That means coming up with more “offshore wind rather than offshore oil and gas”, she added.
On Thursday the UK regulator NSTA trumpeted it had approved seven new licences for oil and gas in the North Sea this year, including Rosebank, to much controversy.
The UK still relies on oil and gas to power its economy and homes, but approving a new oilfield sends the wrong signal at climate talks.
So does the PM’s recent delaying of some climate targets, after he began advocating for a more “pragmatic” approach to tackling climate change.
His climate advisers, the CCC, said the impact of this tinkering wouldn’t be dramatic in the short term.
However, they warned it was still unclear how the UK would meet its target to zero out emissions.
Harder still, because the shift in rhetoric has damaged consumer confidence and business investment, they said.
The government will hope to assuage concerns about its commitment as it dispatches soft power extraordinaire King Charles to open the leaders’ section of the COP28 summit, before Rishi Sunak also gives a speech.
A £60m investment in a landmark new fund to help vulnerable countries cope with climate change will help too, though it is a drop of what is needed.
A bumper crew of other ministers including at least David Cameron, Claire Coutinho and Graham Stuart are also due to jet in during the summit.
But the PM’s changes have also so far failed to deliver the popularity boost Number 10 were hoping for, with Conservatives still trailing Labour in the polls.
Former UN insider Rachel Kyte predicted “larger than usual participation from the opposition parties” at COP28 as people here “will want to talk to the team possibly forming the next government”.
“At this COP the UK may find itself somewhat alone. No longer negotiating as part of the EU, no longer a COP President… and having sent mixed signals over the past year.”
However, the UK’s influence is boosted by its experienced and invested lead negotiator. Alison Campbell’s relationships with counterparts in developing nations will help smooth over some cracks.
And despite the chat at home, the UK’s negotiating position here at COP has not changed significantly since last year, still advocating for a phase out of “unabated” fossil fuels. “Unabated” gives wiggle room as it allows for fossil fuels with expensive technology to capture the emissions, but it is still ambitious.
But it is harder to ask countries to ditch fossil fuels that drive climate change if the UK is still issuing licences, COP veterans have said.
Commenting on approval of Rosebank campaigner Vanessa Nakate, said: “That is really not true climate leadership because that is fuelling the problem, that is fuelling the climate crisis.”
A UK official pointed out the UK’s oil and gas production is still dramatically phasing down overall.
Nakate told Sky News at COP: “It’s going to be hard for governments in Global South countries to not invest in fossil fuels, if they see that those that thrived on and built their economies on fossil fuels in the past are continuing to invest in them.”
Tasneem Essop, who leads Climate Action Network of more than 1,000 NGOs at COP, said: “We see this happening in the US as well.
“Developed countries are calling out that kind of double standard or hypocrisy. They’re very aware of this.”
One key representative of such nations is Madeleine Diouf Sarr, who fronts the group of 46 Least Developed Countries that negotiate as a block at COP talks.
Asked about the UK, she said “rich, responsible countries must lead the way” to get to the “steep cuts to global emissions” needed.
The UN Environment Programme recently warned a 43% drop in emissions was needed by 2030, but current policies amount to just a 2% fall.
Laurence Tubiana, architect of the landmark Paris Agreement and now CEO European Climate Foundation said: “The UK has been a leader on climate change and its voice counts. This was evident at COP26 in Glasgow two years ago.
But, she added: “As with all diplomacy, you have to ‘walk the walk’ if you want to persuade others.”