What is COP28, who is going, and what’s at stake?
It is one week until the annual United Nations COP climate negotiations kick off. This year’s talks, COP28, take place in Dubai. And they are even more contentious than usual.
What is COP28?
Every year almost 200 countries gather to agree the next global steps to tackling climate change.
COP stands for “conference of the parties”, with parties being countries that have signed up to the original UN climate treaty (UNFCCC) in 1992 to avoid “dangerous interference” with the climate.
Where and when is COP28?
COP28 takes place at Dubai’s Expo City from 30 November until 12 December, though it may well overrun by a day.
It starts with a ceremonial opening on Thursday 30 November, with world leaders including Rishi Sunak expected to attend and make speeches on 1 and 2 December.
King Charles will give the opening address of this summit on 1 December – his first major climate speech since becoming monarch.
The United Arab Emirates is hosting COP28 on behalf of Asia, as the COP presidency rotates each year, with the five different UN regions taking it in turn to appoint a country to host on their behalf.
Why is COP28 in Dubai, and why is it controversial?
The UAE’s COP presidency has always faced criticism because the country is in the top 10 oil producing nations in the world.
Sky News revealed in August the UAE had missed its own clean power target.
Burning fossil fuels like oil and gas is the main cause of climate change.
The UAE further raised eyebrows when it appointed Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of the national oil company, ADNOC, to run the talks.
Campaigners say this is too great a conflict of interest – Greta Thunberg called it “ridiculous”. A group of 100 US and EU politicians sought to oust him as COP28 boss – to no avail.
Supporters argue his position uniquely places him to influence the fossil fuel industry, whose transformation is key to tackling climate change.
Dr Sultan also set up the MASDAR renewables company.
Who is attending the climate summit?
As well as Rishi Sunak and King Charles, dozens more world leaders are expected to attend – exact numbers are kept under wraps until the last minute.
Bill Gates, activist Vanessa Nakate and around 70,000 campaigners, business chiefs, lobby groups and indigenous communities will also be there. This would make it far larger than the 40,000 at COP26 in Glasgow, the biggest ever so far.
Between them they’ll seek to influence the negotiations and the media, strike deals or bolster their climate credentials.
The United Arab Emirates sparked an outcry when it invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, amid concern over human rights and environmental abuses – but it hasn’t confirmed whether Mr Assad will attend.
Leaders of the world’s two largest emitters – US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi – are not jetting in, though their respective climate envoys, John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, will.
Why is COP important?
At COP, countries are negotiating over the fate of the planet.
This year is “virtually certain” to be the hottest in human history, and the heat has turbocharged extreme weather like fires in Europe and flooding in New York.
There is little dispute that the world is off track on tackling climate change.
The United Nations on Monday warned the planet is on course for 2.5-2.9C of warming, far more than the goal in the Paris Agreement of ideally limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
But there will be a row about how to course correct. Science has told us how to do this, including by cutting emissions from fossil fuels, but there will surely be clashes at COP about what to commit to in writing.
This course correction is known as the “Global Stocktake” and will be the main political agreement/outcome from COP.
A fight is brewing over whether to “phase down” or “phase out” fossil fuels.
Countries also disagree over whether the world should be trying to get rid of fossil fuels per se, or just “unabated” fossil fuels – that’s when oil or gas is burned without technologies to capture their emissions.
Such technologies are needed to some degree, but are very expensive and currently rarely available at scale.
What else will be discussed?
The main focus is on the Global Stocktake – the course correction of how to get the world back on track for lower levels of warming.
Countries will also be negotiating on money paid by rich, generally polluting, developed countries to help poor, vulnerable countries either stop their contribution to climate change, such as by building clean power, or adapt to its impacts.
Speaking of renewables, a suggested target of trebling capacity by 2030 has gathered traction this year and is less divisive than proposals to ditch fossil fuels.
A key success at last year’s COP27 was the commitment to set up a fund to pay for losses and damages from climate change that are beyond adapting to – such as when an entire industry like fishing or farming collapses because of temperature changes.
But the loss and damage fund is not yet up and running, and details still need ironing out.
The US is gunning for an end to new permitting of coal-fired power, the most polluting fossil fuel. This is convenient for the US because it is a major producer of oil and gas.
Negotiations may be a bumpy ride for the UK, which has recently watered down of some key climate targets and urgency towards climate action.