The mood is tense among Tory MPs who think most things ‘weak’ Number 10 touches get worse
Can Number 10 shut down talk of an early general election?
Will they do something in the coming days and hours to shut down the wildfire talk of bringing forward an election to May? And how will that land?
Those are the key questions in Westminster this evening.
Rishi Sunak’s team no longer denies that things are bad. The mood amongst MPs is febrile, unhappy, tense and uncertain.
Many are letting this be known privately, through Sir Graham Brady, and some are saying so publicly. The prime minister was hit by three unsupportive questions at PMQs from his own side, an indicator that discipline is fracturing.
But some in Number 10 think there is light at the end of the tunnel – that the disquiet amongst Tory MPs will die down once they realise the prime minister is going to stick true to his word and is not about to call a May election.
But how do they achieve this? Quiet briefings and non-definitive statements by Rishi Sunak have not worked so far.
He only has until 26 March to call a vote on 2 May, coinciding with local and mayoral ballots. But will he feel he has to say something more emphatic before then?
Ordinarily, a signal from Downing Street there’s no plan for an election should be enough to shut things down.
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But such is the perceived weakness of Number 10 among Tory MPs, and a belief that most things it touches get worse, that this has shut down neither the debate about election timing, nor the discussion about the prime minister’s future.
To many in the country, the talk of an early election seems mad.
The party is 26 points behind in some polls and there is a chance of improving economic data in the coming weeks – just look at the monthly GDP on Tuesday pointing to Britain coming out of recession by the time of the next quarterly figures in May.
Yet standing outside the Members’ Lobby today, MP after MP questioned this and gave their own reasons to bring judgement day sooner.
Some think Mr Sunak will not be able to withstand political pressure after the local and mayoral elections, which could be disastrous.
Others worry that the summer will bring more small boats, and time will accentuate the failure of the Rwanda policy to take flesh.
More people will be coming off fixed-rate mortgages, while it’s far from clear another budget-style event will mean money to spend on yet more tax cuts.
Some of the reasons, as expressed, are darker.
One Tory MP told me – while admitting this is a “diabolical” point of view – that if they delay until the autumn, the crisis in the Middle East, which is perceived to be hurting Labour’s relationship with its voters, will be even more damaging for the Opposition.
Another said he can’t go on because the prime minister “has nothing left in the tank” and thinks this will be exposed by a later election date.
Yet the reasons for delay can seem equally unedifying. One Tory minister said that one justification for going later would be for younger MP colleagues, who have built up debt, to earn a few more months salary over the summer.
It is not clear which arguments weigh heaviest on Number 10. What is clear is that key campaign figures are going on holiday, and they don’t want it early.
Sometimes it is hard not to be cynical enough about our politics.